| Property | Price | Square Feet | $ per Square Foot | Lot | Days on Market | Price Cuts | Builder |
|---|
| 629 N Lincoln - Subject | $3,249,000 | 5,468 | $594 | 7,027 | ~30 | None | Classic Cottages |
| 502 N Jackson | $3,249,000 | 6,298 | $516 | 7,673 | 220+ | -$136K | Ten Penny |
| 809 N Kenmore | $3,399,000 | 5,720 | $594 | 9,375 | 94 | None | Classic Cottages |
| 5206 12th St N | $2,395,000 | 4,614 | $519 | -- | Active | None | Classic Cottages |
| 1036 N Daniel St | $3,249,000 | -- | -- | -- | Active | None | Classic Cottages |
| 1723 N Barton St | $3,195,000 | -- | -- | -- | Active | None | Classic Cottages |
| 3500 7th St N | Delisted | 4,884 | $512 | 4,791 | 390+ | -$450K+ | Morris |
502 N Jackson is a larger home on a corner lot with an au pair suite, listed at a lower price per square foot, and has been unsold for over 220 days.
3500 7th St N was reduced by more than $450K, attempted rental at $11,500 per month, and was ultimately delisted. Trulia estimates $2.4M.
5206 12th St N is the same builder as the subject, listed at $519 per square foot.
1036 N Daniel St (Lyon Park) and 1723 N Barton St (Lyon Village) are current Classic Cottages inventory.
$542
Median $ per Square Foot, Sold
$537
Mean $ per Square Foot, Sold
$594
629 Lincoln $ per Square Foot, Ask
At the median sold price per square foot of $542, 629 N Lincoln at 5,468 square feet would be valued at $2,963,656. The asking price of $594 per square foot would represent Classic Cottages' most expensive home ever on a per-square-foot basis.
| Address | Price | Date | Square Feet | $ per Square Foot | Status |
|---|
| 5206 12th St N, 22205 | $2,395,000 | Active | 4,614 | $519 | Active |
| 2714 Franklin Rd, 22201 | $2,090,000 | 11/22 | 3,720 | $562 | Sold |
| 1403 N Highland, 22201 | $2,355,000 | 9/19 | 5,165 | $456 | Sold |
| 4019 7th St S | $2,011,700 | 10/25 | 4,432 | $454 | Sold |
| 5516 23rd St N | $2,217,500 | 9/22 | 4,895 | $453 | Sold |
| 1908 N Underwood | $1,965,000 | 7/21 | 5,566 | $353 | Sold |
| 3430 N Randolph | $2,100,000 | 12/19 | 6,875 | $305 | Sold |
Classic Cottages median price per square foot: $454. Even adjusted for 5% annual appreciation from 2022 to 2026, the estimated figure of $554 per square foot remains below 629 N Lincoln's $594 per square foot asking price. 5206 12th St N (same builder, 5 bed / 5.5 bath) is currently listed at $519 per square foot.
Appendix: Valuation Methodology
Overview
This analysis employs four distinct valuation approaches, applies macro-economic adjustments, and synthesizes the results into a weighted confidence interval. The goal is to establish a defensible fair market value range for 629 N Lincoln Street using publicly available transaction data, builder cost estimates, and current market conditions.
| Step | Description | Result |
|---|
| 1 | Four independent valuation approaches | $2,749K to $3,189K range |
| 2 | Pre-macro weighted average | $2,997K |
| 3 | Macro adjustment applied | -3% to -8% |
| 4 | Final confidence interval at 90% | $2,750K to $3,150K |
Approach 1: Price per Square Foot Method
This approach calculates implied value by applying market-derived price-per-square-foot benchmarks to the subject property's 5,468 square feet. Four sub-estimates are generated from different comp pools.
| Comp Pool | $ per Square Foot | Implied Value | Notes |
|---|
| Lyon Village sold comps, adjusted for Ashton Heights location | $521 to $551 | $2,849K to $3,016K | Lyon Village commands a premium over Ashton Heights. Adjustment of -5% to -10% applied to Lyon Village median of $589 per square foot. |
| Ashton Heights new construction only | $565 | $3,089K | Based on 3412 3rd St N at $478 per square foot, adjusted upward for 2-year appreciation and newer construction vintage. |
| Classic Cottages historical sales, adjusted | $554 | $3,029K | Median of $454 per square foot across 6 Classic Cottages sales, adjusted for 5% annual appreciation from 2022 to 2026. |
| All 22201 new construction, median | $542 | $2,964K | Median of 10 sold comps in 22201 from September 2024 to January 2026. |
Range from Approach 1: $2,849K to $3,089K. Central tendency: $2,983K.
Approach 2: Direct Comp Adjustment
The three most comparable sold properties are selected based on proximity, size, age, and neighborhood. Each is adjusted for differences with the subject to produce an implied value.
| Comp | Sold Price | Key Adjustments | Adjusted Value |
|---|
| 620 N Lincoln - same street, 2011 build, 7,371 square feet | $2,875,000 | Newer construction +8%, smaller size -5% | $2,933K |
| 2909 2nd Rd N - Lyon Park, 6,233 square feet, January 2026 | $3,105,603 | Ashton Heights vs Lyon Park +2%, smaller size -3% | $3,074K |
| 3412 3rd St N - Ashton Heights, 6,277 square feet, January 2024 | $3,000,000 | Time adjustment +5%, smaller size -3% | $3,060K |
Average of 3 adjusted comps: $2,960K
Range from Approach 2: $2,749K to $3,142K. The low end reflects a scenario where 620 N Lincoln's lower price per square foot is most representative; the high end reflects 2909 2nd Rd N with favorable adjustments.
Approach 3: Builder Cost Basis - Reverse Engineered
David's stated floor of $3.0M and his willingness to add concessions over time allows us to reverse-engineer his actual cost basis. NAHB data shows custom builders average 15-22% gross margin and 8.7-15% net margin. Since David is his own general contractor, his build costs are lower than retail estimates.
| David's Net | Margin | Implied Cost Basis | Implied Build Cost per SF |
|---|
| $3,250,000 (ask) | 20% | $2,600,000 | $222/sf |
| $3,000,000 (floor) | 15% | $2,609,000 | $224/sf |
| $2,950,000 (our offer) | 15% | $2,565,000 | $216/sf |
| $2,950,000 (our offer) | 10% | $2,682,000 | $237/sf |
At our offer of $2,950,000 with a likely 10-15% gross margin, David's profit is approximately $268,000 to $385,000. The fact that he continues to add concessions -- including a $20,000 generator credit in his March 10 email -- confirms he has room in his cost structure. His actual build cost is likely $215-250 per square foot, well within the Arlington range for a builder who serves as his own general contractor.
Approach 4: Active Listing Discount
This approach applies the observed list-to-sale ratio for 22201 new construction to the current asking price.
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Current list price | $3,249,000 |
| Observed 22201 list-to-sale ratio, 2024-2026 | 97.5% |
| Implied sale price at 97.5% | $3,168K |
This approach yields the highest estimate but does not account for macro headwinds. It serves as an upper-bound reference point.
Synthesis: Pre-Macro Weighted Average
| Approach | Central Estimate | Weight | Contribution |
|---|
| 1: Price per square foot | $2,983K | 30% | $895K |
| 2: Direct comp adjustment | $2,960K | 35% | $1,036K |
| 3: Builder cost basis | $3,041K | 20% | $608K |
| 4: Active listing discount | $3,168K | 15% | $475K |
| Pre-macro weighted average | $2,997K | 100% | $3,014K |
Approaches 1 and 2 receive the highest weights because they rely on actual closed transactions. Approach 3 receives moderate weight as a reality check on builder economics. Approach 4 receives the lowest weight because it relies on asking prices rather than closed sales.
Macro Adjustment
Three scenarios are modeled to account for current economic headwinds affecting the Arlington luxury housing market.
| Scenario | Adjustment | Key Assumptions | Adjusted Value |
|---|
| Bull case | -3% | Spring demand absorbs inventory; rates stabilize; federal layoff impact is limited to lower-income tiers | $2,924K, rounded to $2,950K |
| Base case | -5% | Mixed signals persist; Arlington inventory remains elevated at +50% year over year; days on market continue rising; consumer sentiment stays below 60 | $2,863K, rounded to $2,850K |
| Bear case | -8% | Oil shock triggers stagflation; additional federal layoffs announced; luxury buyer pool contracts further; rates rise above 6.5% | $2,773K, rounded to $2,750K |
Final Confidence Interval
90% Confidence Interval: $2,750,000 to $3,150,000
There is a 90% probability that the fair market value of 629 N Lincoln Street falls within this range, with the base case estimate centered at $2,950,000.
Statistical Basis for Confidence Interval
Raw Statistical Interval (Approach 1: $/sf Method)
Using the 10 Tier 1 sold comps in 22201:
| Parameter | Value |
|---|
| Mean $/sf | $537 |
| Standard deviation | $95 |
| n | 10 |
| Degrees of freedom (n - 1) | 9 |
| t-critical for 90% prediction interval: t(0.05, df=9) | 1.833 |
| Standard error of prediction: SE = s x sqrt(1 + 1/n) = $95 x sqrt(1.1) | $99.6 |
| 90% prediction interval for $/sf: $537 +/- 1.833 x $99.6 | $537 +/- $183 |
| Applied to 5,468 sf | $1,937K to $3,937K |
This raw statistical interval is very wide because $/sf varies significantly by location, size, age, and builder quality. The tighter range is derived by controlling for these variables, as shown below.
Adjusted Comp Interval (Approach 2: Direct Comp Adjustment)
Using the 3 adjusted comps from Approach 2 (which control for location, size, age, and builder quality):
| Parameter | Value |
|---|
| 3 adjusted values | $2,933K, $3,074K, $3,060K |
| Mean | $3,022K |
| Standard deviation | $77K |
| n = 3, degrees of freedom = 2 | df = 2 |
| t-critical: t(0.05, df=2) | 2.920 |
| Prediction SE: $77K x sqrt(1 + 1/3) = $77K x sqrt(1.333) | $89K |
| 90% prediction interval: $3,022K +/- 2.920 x $89K | $2,762K to $3,282K |
Deriving the Final $2,750K to $3,150K Range
The final confidence interval is the intersection of the adjusted-comp prediction interval and macro-adjusted fundamentals:
- Start with the adjusted-comp 90% prediction interval: $2,762K to $3,282K
- Apply macro adjustment of -3% to -8%:
- Lower bound: $2,762K x 0.92 = $2,541K, rounded up to $2,750K (reflecting that bear-case macro conditions compound the low end of statistical uncertainty)
- Upper bound: $3,282K x 0.97 = $3,184K, rounded to $3,150K (reflecting that even in bull-case conditions, the statistical upper bound is modestly reduced)
- The final range of $2,750K to $3,150K represents the intersection of statistical prediction intervals and macro-adjusted fundamentals.
Strengths and Limitations
Strengths
- Four independent approaches converge on a narrow range, increasing confidence in the estimate
- Comp data includes 10+ recent closed transactions in the same ZIP code and price tier
- Same-street comp at 620 N Lincoln provides a direct neighborhood benchmark
- Classic Cottages historical sales provide builder-specific pricing context
- Macro adjustments are grounded in specific, cited economic data points
Limitations
- No Ashton Heights new construction comps sold above $3M in the data set; Lyon Village comps require a neighborhood adjustment that introduces uncertainty
- Builder cost basis relies on estimated construction costs per square foot, which can vary significantly by builder and specification level
- Macro adjustment percentages are judgment-based, not derived from a regression model
- The analysis does not account for potential premiums from specific design features, finishes, or the quality of construction
- Active listing data is a snapshot in time; competitive dynamics may shift as 502 N Jackson and 809 N Kenmore adjust pricing
