Ashton Heights | Classic Cottages | New Construction 2025
| Builder | Classic Cottages, LLC (David Tracy) |
| Style | Craftsman Farmhouse |
| Levels | 4 + Loft |
| Garage | 2-car attached |
| MLS | VAAR2063224 |
| Listing Agent | Lisa Dubois-Headley, RLAH @properties |
| Lot Zoning | R-6 |
| Lot Purchase Price | $1,385,000 (Jan 2, 2025) |
| Tax Assessment (current) | $1,103,000 (2024, pre-construction land only) |
| Projected Tax Assessment | ~$3,036,000 (est. -- Arlington assesses ~8% below market; based on $3.3M recorded sale) |
| Projected Annual Tax | $31,817/yr ($2,651/mo) at $1.048/$100 assessed (FY2026 proposed rate) |
| School Zone | Arlington Science Focus (top 10.1% in VA, 90.7% proficiency) |
| Nearest Metro | Virginia Square (0.3 mi) |
20 sold comps + 4 active listings | September 2024 -- March 2026
| Property | Price | Sq Ft | $/SF | Lot | DOM | Cuts | Builder |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 629 N Lincoln (Subject) | $3,249,000 | 5,468 | $594 | 7,027 | ~30 | None | Classic Cottages |
| 502 N Jackson | $3,249,000 | 6,298 | $516 | 7,673 | 220+ | -$136K | Ten Penny |
| 809 N Kenmore | $3,399,000 | 5,720 | $594 | 9,375 | 94 | None | Classic Cottages |
| 3500 7th St N | Delisted | 4,884 | $512 | 4,791 | 390+ | -$450K+ | Morris |
502 N Jackson: bigger home, corner lot, au pair suite -- listed LOWER $/sf and still unsold 220+ days.
3500 7th St N: across the street from 629, cut $450K+, tried renting at $11,500/mo, then delisted entirely. Trulia estimates $2.4M.
| Address | Sold | Date | Sq Ft | $/SF | Bd/Ba | Hood | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1404 N Hudson | $4,075,000 | 9/4/25 | 7,111 | $573 | 7/8 | Lyon Village | Highest sale; below ask |
| 1416 N Hancock | $3,875,000 | 10/7/25 | 5,588 | $693 | 7/7.5 | Lyon Village | 2 blks to Metro |
| 1619 N Edgewood | $3,637,120 | 12/12/25 | 5,719 | $637 | 6/6 | Lyon Village | +6.2% above ask |
| 1620 N Garfield | $3,365,000 | 12/6/24 | 5,710 | $589 | 5/5.5 | Lyon Village | M-R Custom |
| 2909 2nd Rd N | $3,105,603 | 1/2/26 | 6,233 | $498 | 6/6.5 | Lyon Park | 4% below ask |
| 3412 3rd St N | $3,000,000 | 1/30/24 | 6,277 | $478 | 5/7 | Ashton Hts | Anne Decker architect |
| 912 N Cleveland | $2,975,000 | 11/15/24 | 7,085 | $420 | 7/6.5 | Lyon Park | M-R Custom |
| 2423 16th St N | $2,975,000 | 12/16/24 | 5,490 | $542 | 6/5.5 | Lyon Village | Griffin Head |
| 620 N Lincoln | $2,875,000 | 7/25/25 | 7,371 | $390 | 6/6+2 | Ashton Hts | Same street, 2011 build |
| 3187 17th St N | $2,537,000 | 1/24/25 | 4,622 | $549 | 5/6 | Lyon Village | Smallest comp |
At the median sold $/sf of $542, 629 N Lincoln (5,468 sf) would be valued at $2,963,656. The asking price of $594/sf would make it Classic Cottages' most expensive home ever on a $/sf basis.
| Address | Sold | Date | Sq Ft | $/SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2714 Franklin Rd (22201) | $2,090,000 | 11/22 | 3,720 | $562 |
| 1403 N Highland (22201) | $2,355,000 | 9/19 | 5,165 | $456 |
| 4019 7th St S | $2,011,700 | 10/25 | 4,432 | $454 |
| 5516 23rd St N | $2,217,500 | 9/22 | 4,895 | $453 |
| 1908 N Underwood | $1,965,000 | 7/21 | 5,566 | $353 |
| 3430 N Randolph | $2,100,000 | 12/19 | 6,875 | $305 |
Classic Cottages median $/sf: $454. Even adjusted for 5%/yr appreciation (2022-2026), estimated $554/sf -- still below 629's $594/sf ask.
| Factor | Current | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed Rate | 6.11% | Elevated |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.50-3.75% (HOLD expected Mar 18) | Neutral |
| Oil (Brent Crude) | $103/bbl | Stagflation risk |
| DOGE Federal Layoffs | 56,000 DC-area jobs lost (96% federal) | Buyer pool reduced |
| Consumer Sentiment | 55.5 (2026 low) | Weak |
| S&P 500 | -5% from highs | Wealth effect negative |
| Arlington Inventory | +50% YoY | More buyer leverage |
| Arlington DOM | 75 days (up from 54) | Market slowing |
| Spring Season | Pending contracts +13.3% YoY | Seasonal boost |
| School Zone (ASFS) | Top 10.1% in VA | Premium |
Target: $2,950,000 net to builder | $3,300,000 headline
| Line Item | Amount | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Headline Sales Price | $3,300,000 | Records above $3.249M ask -- protects builder comps |
| 3% No-Broker Credit | -$99,000 | No buyer agent; Austin self-represents |
| Closing Work (Builder Credits) | -$146,900 | 10 items: window treatments, closets, heated floors, door, towel warmer, electrical, etc. |
| Rate Buydown (30yr Fixed to 4.5%) | -$60,000 | Permanent buydown on ~$1.75M loan |
| Generator (20KW Kohler) | -$20,000 | David agreed Mar 10 |
| Additional Work Items | -$20,548 | Audio system (Klipsch + Sonos Amps), Lutron switches, smart locks, gas line, hot tub line, installs, outlets, mirrors |
| Net to Builder | $2,953,552 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Effective Purchase Price | $2,950,000 |
| Down Payment (~43%) | $1,200,000 |
| Loan Amount | $1,750,000 |
| Rate (30yr Fixed, bought down) | 4.50% |
| Monthly P&I | $8,866 |
| Property Tax (est.) | $2,575 |
| 717 Rental Income (est.) | -$4,400 |
| Monthly Net Cost | $7,041 |
| Annual Net Cost | $84,492 |
| Method | Value | vs. Offer |
|---|---|---|
| 22201 Median $/sf ($542) x 5,468 | $2,963,656 | Offer at +0.5% premium |
| Classic Cottages adjusted $/sf ($554) x 5,468 | $3,029,272 | Offer at -2.6% |
| Direct comp adjustment (3 closest) | $2,960,000 | Offer at -0.3% |
| Ashton Heights new construction est. | $3,089,000 | Offer at -4.5% |
| Average of Methods | $3,010,000 | Offer at -2.0% |
Our offer of $2.95M is within 2% of the average valuation across four independent methodologies. It represents fair market value given current macro headwinds (DOGE layoffs, oil shock, rising inventory).
Builder items vs. Owner items -- complete breakdown
| # | Item | Cost | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Window treatments | $80,000 | Allowance; Austin/Leila choose design |
| 2 | Custom closet installation | $24,000 | Allowance; Austin/Leila choose layout |
| 3 | Fix 717 bathroom leak | $10,000 | So 717 can become rental quickly |
| 4 | Low-voltage power to all windows | $10,000 | Wiring for motorized shades |
| 5 | Heated floors + towel warmer (primary bath) | $10,300 | Includes towel warmer purchase + install |
| 6 | Epoxy garage floor | $5,600 | -- |
| 7 | Misc electrical | $5,000 | Whole house GFI, bidet outlets (all baths), Lutron installs, under-cabinet lighting, speaker/WAP install, security keypads |
| 8 | New front door (no glass) | $2,000 | Builder purchases + installs privacy-style door |
| Closing Work Total | $146,900 |
| # | Item | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fix floor crack (1st level) | Large gap/crack near half bath entryway |
| 10 | Front porch step railing | Safety -- 2ft step, no railing, danger to elderly/children |
| 11 | Adjust mudroom hanger hooks | Too close to top panel, unusable |
| 12 | Missing hanger bars in closets | Several closets need bars/rods installed |
| 13 | Remove basement carpet | Replace with matching basement flooring |
These are construction deficiencies, not concessions. Should be completed regardless of deal terms.
| # | Item | Cost | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Ticket | |||
| 14 | Generator (20KW Kohler) | $20,000 | David agreed Mar 10. Austin paid $14,055 in 2020. |
| 15 | Whole-house audio: 2x Sonos Amp + Klipsch speakers (6 zones) + install | $4,598 | 2x Sonos Amp ($1,398) + 6 pairs Klipsch CDT-5800 in-ceiling ($1,200) + install ($1,000) + wiring ($1,000). Parity with 809 N Kenmore which includes whole-house speakers. |
| 16 | Gas line to 2nd + 3rd floors | $5,000 | For future fireplaces. Cheapest during construction. |
| 17 | 220V hot tub line | $2,500 | 220V run to back of house |
| Installation Labor (Austin Buys Hardware) | |||
| 18 | Lutron switches (25x) + install | $3,000 | $70ea next gen dimmer wifi ($1,750) + install 30 min/switch @ $100/hr ($1,250) |
| 19 | Security camera install (7) | $700 | $100/hr x 7 installs |
| 20 | Gym mirror + install | $1,700 | Wall-length panels, basement gym |
| 21 | Flood lamps (5 on Lutron) | $750 | Purchase + install |
| 22 | WiFi AP install (5 ceiling) | $500 | $200/hr @ 30 min each |
| 23 | USB-C outlets (10) | $500 | $50/outlet, various locations |
| 24 | Outdoor outlets | $300 | Various locations |
| 25 | Smart locks (3x Yale) + install | $1,000 | Apple Home connected keypad ($750) + install ($250) |
| Additional Work Total | $40,548 | ||
| # | Item | Cost | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ceiling WiFi APs (5x) | $2,500 | $500/WAP |
| 2 | Security cameras (7x Google or equiv.) | $1,400 | Apple Home compatible. Doorbell + 6 outdoor locations |
| Hardware Total | $3,900 |
| # | Item | Cost | Vendor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Turf (backyard) | $50,000 | Affordable Lawn (Ryan Muniz/Reed) |
| 2 | Trees & plants | $11,200 | 4x Forever Goldies, 8x Green Giants, 2x Japanese Maples, 2x Oaks, seasonal |
| 3 | French drain | $10,000 | Before turf prep |
| 4 | Sprinkler system | $7,000 | Affordable Lawn |
| 5 | Landscaping (edge/mulch) | $5,000 | Affordable Lawn |
| 6 | Landscape lighting | $5,000 | Affordable Lawn |
| Outdoor Total | $88,200 |
| Item | Gross Cost | Tax Credit (30%) | Net Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar panels (18-21 KW) | $60,000 | -$18,000 | $42,000 |
| Category | Who Pays | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Closing work credits | Builder | $146,900 |
| Additional work (audio, Lutron, locks, generator, etc.) | Builder | $40,548 |
| Rate buydown (30yr → 4.5%) | Builder | $60,000 |
| Broker credit (3%) | Builder | $99,000 |
| Builder Total | $346,448 | |
| Hardware (Austin buys, builder installs) | Owner | $3,900 |
| Outdoor / landscaping | Owner | $88,200 |
| Solar (net of credit) | Owner | $42,000 |
| Owner Total | $134,100 | |
| Grand Total (All Parties) | $480,548 |
Draft -- for internal planning only. Actual HUD prepared by Double Eagle Title.
| Buyer: Austin Hay & Leila Hay | Seller: Classic Cottages, LLC |
| Property: 629 N Lincoln St, Arlington, VA 22201 | Settlement Agent: Double Eagle Title |
| Settlement Date: TBD (30 days from ratification) | Loan Type: 30-Year Fixed (Jumbo) |
| Description | Amount |
|---|---|
| 100. Contract Sales Price | $3,300,000.00 |
| 101. Personal Property | -- |
| 103. Settlement Charges to Borrower (line 1400) | $45,000.00 |
| 120. GROSS AMOUNT DUE FROM BORROWER | $3,345,000.00 |
| Amounts Paid by or on Behalf of Borrower | Amount |
|---|---|
| 201. Earnest Money Deposit | $50,000.00 |
| 202. Principal Amount of New Loan | $1,750,000.00 |
| 204. Seller Credit -- No Buyer Broker (3%) | $99,000.00 |
| 205. Seller Credit -- Builder Closing Work | $146,900.00 |
| 206. Seller Credit -- Rate Buydown (30yr to 4.5%) | $60,000.00 |
| 207. Seller Credit -- Generator + Audio + Lutron + Locks + Additional | $40,548.00 |
| 220. TOTAL PAID BY/FOR BORROWER | $2,146,448.00 |
| 301. CASH FROM BORROWER AT SETTLEMENT | $1,198,552.00 |
| Description | Amount |
|---|---|
| 400. Contract Sales Price | $3,300,000.00 |
| 420. GROSS AMOUNT DUE TO SELLER | $3,300,000.00 |
| Reductions in Amount Due to Seller | Amount |
|---|---|
| 504. Credit -- No Buyer Broker (3%) | $99,000.00 |
| 505. Credit -- Builder Closing Work | $146,900.00 |
| 506. Credit -- Rate Buydown | $60,000.00 |
| 507. Credit -- Generator + Audio + Lutron + Locks + Additional | $40,548.00 |
| 520. TOTAL REDUCTIONS | $346,448.00 |
| 601. NET TO SELLER | $2,953,552.00 |
| Loan Amount | $1,750,000.00 |
| Interest Rate (bought down) | 4.500% (30-Year Fixed) |
| Monthly P&I | $8,865.93 |
| Lender | Brian Kempf (TBD) |
| Title Company | Double Eagle Title |
This is a draft mockup for planning purposes. Actual settlement statement will be prepared by Double Eagle Title at closing.